Category Archives: Entrepreneurship

Simon Johnson on Education & MBA Students

Source: Conversations with Tyler, May 2023

Simon Johnson

JOHNSON: Well, if you think about countries that have really done well but not entirely broken free of being middle income — South Korea is one of my favorites because my wife’s parents were born in South Korea, and I spent a lot of time talking with them and thinking about the country and talking with Korean economists.

I think that you need to spread an education system that really encourages creativity and really helps you break from some of the strictures of the past. I think you need more entrepreneurship. You need a lot of integration with the world economy, a lot of exchange of ideas.


COWEN: 

Last two questions. First, when you’re evaluating students — not just who will make a lot of money, but someone you might want to work with or you think will change how the rest of the world thinks about ideas — what are the non-obvious qualities you look for in those students? Sure, they should be smart, they should work hard, but what else?

JOHNSON: 

Ability to communicate.

Daron and I actually have a course based on the book we’re teaching to MIT undergraduates right now. It’s a communications elective, Tyler. We have a fantastic writing coach working with us, and some superb TAs.

We’re trying to help the students learn how to write persuasively about technology. Technology policy, sure, but about technology more broadly. It’s a lot of fun, and, I think, a good complement to their other parts of education, which are obviously much more technical, much more mathematical.

I’m interested in, can people communicate ideas?

Can they communicate with me? Can they communicate with other people, particularly about technical topics? And do it in a way that isn’t condescending, a way that explains things clearly, a way that invites further debate and conversation?

And then, do they listen to the feedback they get and sharpen the messages?

Billionaire Taxes

Source: Faster Please/Substack, Feb 2023

would SpaceX and Tesla — combined value of an estimated $1.2 trillion — exist in a world of sharply higher investment taxes and a fat new levy on wealth? Maybe not. At least not both of them.

University of Chicago economist Steven Kaplan has run the numbers. To begin: Musk was one of the “PayPal Mafia,” the founders and early employees of the financial technology company. When PayPal was bought by eBay in 2002, Musk, the largest shareholder, walked away with $250 million before taxes, leaving him with $180 million after taxes.

What did Musk do with that cash? Well, he didn’t buy some monstrous Bel-Air mansion or pricey Picasso painting. Instead, he started SpaceX in 2002, putting in $100 million, and Tesla in 2003, putting in $80 million. Musk: “I thought the probability of success was so low that I provided all of the money. All of the money just came from me personally. I didn’t want to ask people, other investors for money if I thought we were going to die because I thought we were.”

Of course, it’s hardly been a smooth ride getting from there to here. In 2008, during the Global Financial Crisis, both companies almost went bankrupt. Musk calls it “definitely the worst year of my life.” Tesla closed a financing round on Christmas Eve 2008. “It was the last hour of the last day that it was possible,” he recalled in 2015. “Even then, we only narrowly survived.”

As for SpaceX, here’s a bit from a December 2021 podcast chat I had with Eric Berger, senior space editor at Ars Technica and the author of Liftoff: Elon Musk and the Desperate Early Days That Launched SpaceX:

By far, the most desperate moment for SpaceX was after the third flight of the Falcon 1 rocket where pretty much everyone assumed they were going to be successful. They were already running out of money. And then that rocket went up and failed. That was the summer when Elon Musk was getting divorced, where Tesla was hemorrhaging money. And now SpaceX had just failed for the third time. [SpaceX President] Gwynne Shotwell said they had payroll for maybe six or eight more weeks, then the company was going to go bust.

And so that was a desperate period when they were leading up to the launch and they had one more rocket, the fourth rocket they were going to launch, and they were flying it out to [the Kwajalein Atoll launch site in the Marshall Islands]. … And as they were flying that first stage toward Kwajalein, it starts imploding on the C-17 aircraft. And so this was their last piece of hardware. So that was probably the most desperate moment when everyone on that plane thought they might die due to that imploding rocket. And then they were also concerned about losing the hardware. They were able, obviously, to salvage it.

Indeed, they did. That historic fourth flight on September 28, 2008 made the Falcon 1 the first privately built liquid-fueled booster to reach orbit. It saved the company. But would that launch have happened if Musk had left PayPal with $60 million less? Would Tesla have muddled into 2009 and beyond? Kaplan doesn’t think so. “Either SpaceX or Tesla would not exist — and I don’t think anyone else would have done it,” he said in a 2020 debate with University of California, Berkeley, economist Emmanuel Saez, a wealth tax proponent.

Elon Musk

Steve Jobs

Jeff Bezos

According to estimates by Nobel laureate economist William Nordhaus, innovators captured only 2 percent of the value they created between 1948 and 2001.

He found that “only a miniscule fraction of the social returns from technological advances” accrued to innovators and concluded that “most of the benefits of technological change are passed on to consumers.”

Waze: Getting There Speedily

Source: NY Times, Jan 2023

Waze uses real-time traffic data to give you the best route at any given moment.

Uri Levine, one of the three founders of Waze, came out with a book, “Fall in Love With the Problem, Not the Solution: A Handbook for Entrepreneurs,” which describes how the navigation app came together, along with advice on how to be an entrepreneur. It is probably the best insider account about Waze you’ll ever get, because the other founders, Ehud Shabtai and Amir Shinar, aren’t giving interviews. (I asked.)

To him, loving the problem means remaining focused on customers’ needs — the problem — rather than getting overly attached to your latest, maybe-not-so-good idea for serving those needs. “Going back to 2007 — if I say I’m building an A.I., crowdsourced navigation system, you don’t really care. If I tell you I’m going to help you avoid traffic jams, you do care,” he said.

Steve Wozniak, a founder of Apple Inc., who wrote the foreword to Levine’s book, put it this way: “Falling in love with the problem means valuing the end user as the key to success, not even your own ideas and creations.” He added, “I have always believed in this.”

In 2009 Waze began serving customers in Israel as an app for navigation based on real-time traffic data. Levine was the chief executive officer in charge of management, recruitment and raising capital. Shabtai was the chief technology officer, and Shinar was the vice president for research and development.

A way to help the Waze community that’s less time-consuming than map editing is to report roadside hazards and the like. But even those who do neither still contribute to Waze because the system learns from their anonymized GPS data how fast or slow the traffic is on their routes.

None of that happens without first getting to a critical mass, though. After succeeding in Israel, Waze turned on the app worldwide starting in late 2009. “It was simply not good enough — really, it simply sucked — except in four countries: Ecuador, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Latvia,” Levine wrote in the book. In Ecuador there was a strong local partner; Levine told me he’s not sure why it caught on in the other three countries. “Everywhere else,” he wrote in the book, “people would download the app, try it and give up.”

In 2013 Google bought Waze (for $1.15 billion in cash, according to the book), providing a nice payoff for the co-founders and the employees, all of whom owned shares. 

Today Waze has 151 million monthly active users and 100,000 volunteer community members active each month worldwide, according to Caroline Bourdeau, a Waze spokeswoman. 

Jessica Livingston – Cofounder, YCombinator

Source: Founders At Work, Jun 2018

Growing Up

My grandmother was the most important female role model in my life. She was a very independent person. The term anyone who knew her would use to describe her was “free-spirited.” For example, in the wintertime, after putting me to bed, she’d go out and work till late at night on giant ice sculptures she built in the front yard.


Starting YC

We also had more faith in young founders than most investors did back then. This was back in the days when Google’s VCs had insisted the founders hire an outside CEO as a condition of their series A round.

None of us had any experience at angel investing, and that’s where the idea of funding startups in batches came from. We decided to fund a bunch of startups at once, during the summer, so that we could learn how to be investors. In March 2005 we launched Y Combinator’s website, inviting people to apply for what we called “The Summer Founders Program.”

The first summer, we gave the startups $6k per founder, which was based on the stipend that MIT gave grad students during the summer. At the end of the summer, we hosted the first Demo Day, for an audience of about 15 investors. Reddit was in that first batch, and the founders of Twitch, though they were working on another idea, and Sam Altman’s geolocation startup.

I looked at qualities of the applicants my cofounders couldn’t see. Did they seem earnest? Were they determined? Were they flexible-minded? And most importantly, what was the relationship between the cofounders like? While my partners discussed the idea with the applicants, I usually sat observing silently. Afterward, they would turn to me and ask, “Should we fund them?”

when you get to an extreme in something, things get qualitatively different. Y Combinator was a new extreme in the venture funding business, so what made someone a good investor was different. VCs relied on growth figures and estimates of market sizes, but those didn’t exist at the stage we were investing.

What YC needed was deeply technical people to understand the potential of an idea, and someone like me to understand the founders’ characters and the relationship between them. And to do that well you needed abilities no one had previously considered important in an investor.

One other thing Paul and I had in common was that we weren’t driven by money. We were interested in startups and we wanted to help people start more of them. This was the basis for everything we did at YC. It was what allowed us to do something as weird as YC in the first place.

One thing we’ve learned from Y Combinator is that the most successful startups tend to grow organically out of the founders’ lives. This was true in my case too. I was almost uncannily well suited for the kind of work it took to make YC successful.

But the things that made me well-suited for it were so far from the qualities most people associate with startup founders. I’ll list them so you can see for yourself. I was the social radar, a good event planner, maternal, empathetic, a straight shooter, and not driven by money or fame. Think how far that is from the profile of the typical startup founder you read about in the press.

Maternal? Since when was that an important quality in a startup founder? Let alone the founder of an investment firm. And yet it was critical to making YC what it is.

That’s why I wanted to tell you my story. It’s not true that every person can start every startup. But a lot more people have what it takes to start some startup than realize it. A lot of people, perhaps all people, have some distinctive combination of abilities and interests. And a lot of those combinations match some startup idea.

So if you want to start a startup, I recommend you try asking yourself what’s distinctive about you. What unique combination of abilities and interests do you have? And don’t edit your answers, because as my example shows, the most unlikely ingredients could be the key to the recipe.

In fact, it may even be that the strangest combinations of qualities are the most valuable. I had a weird combination of qualities, but they matched YC because it was such a weird company.

And the most successful startups do tend to be weird. They’re usually such outliers that the idea sounds preposterous at first. To everyone except the founders, because the company has grown out of their experiences.

You are a jigsaw puzzle piece of a certain shape. You could change your shape to fit an existing hole in the world. That was the traditional plan. But there’s another way that can often be better for you and for the world: to grow a new puzzle around you. That’s what I did, and I was a pretty weird-shaped piece. So if I can do it, there’s more hope for you than you probably realize.

8,000X VC return on Coinbase: From US$300,000 to US$2.4 billion

Source: Twitter, Apr 2021

8,000X



Related Resources:

Initialized, Dec 2020

Coinbase of course did end up raising a $5M Series A from Fred Wilson at Union Square Ventures, with a quick follow-on $25M Series B from Chris Dixon at Andreessen Horowitz by the end of the very same year.

CNBC, Apr 2021

Coinbase opened at $381 a share, giving the cryptocurrency exchange a market cap of around $100 billion, based on a fully-diluted share count. By the close, the stock had traded down to $328.28 for a valuation of $85.8 billion. That’s up more than 10-fold from the company’s last private fundraising in 2018 and over 4,000-fold from the Union Square-led round eight years ago.

COINBASE SHARE PRICES

ROUND  YEAR  SHARE PRICE
SERIES A 2013 20 cents
SERIES B 2013 $1
SERIES C 2015 $2.76
SERIES D 2017 $8.25
SERIES E 2018 $36.19
SECONDARY TRADES 2020 $28.83
SECONDARY TRADES 2021 $343.58
NASDAQ DEBUT 2021 $381

Nuts and Bolts of Creating a Pitch Deck

How do co-founders actually split equity?

Source: Carta, Oct 2021

How co-founders split equity in their company is one of the first major decisions in the life of a startup.

  • Equal split? Think again. Only 41% of two-founder teams split equity equally—and that percentage falls drastically for three-, four-, and five-founder teams.
  • Industry plays a major role. Founding teams tend to vary in size depending on the industry they’re in. For instance, nearly 60% of biotech startups have three or more founders.
  • First among (co)-founders. Across all sizes of founding team, there is typically a “lead” founder who receives an outsize proportion of company equity. Often, this founder becomes the CEO and head decision maker for the business.

The Seed Round in 2020-21

Source: DocSend, 2021

 

Cloud Companies: Scaling to $100 Million

Source: Bessemer Venture Partners, Sep 2021

Takeaways from Scaling to $100 Million

Lesson 1: ARR is the North Star.

Growing ARR (or CARR) is every cloud company’s North Star metric.

The average growth rate for companies between $1-10MM of ARR was nearly 200%, decreasing to 60% for companies over $100MM+. Growth endurance measures the rate at which cloud company growth is retained YoY, which tends to be a predictable 70% in the private cloud universe.

Strong gross retention and net retention, which average ~85%+ and ~120%+ across cloud company lifetimes, contribute to maintaining strong growth rates.

Lesson 2: Win by Wide Margins.

Optimizing your costs and expenses is key to building a winning cloud company. In cloud, gross margins measure how effective companies are in delivering their software to customers, and they average 65-70% across company lifetimes.

While COGS are primarily variable costs, you should expect to get leverage from operating expenses: Research & Development (R&D), Sales & Marketing (S&M), and General & Administrative (G&A).

By $100MM of ARR, these expenses average 35%, 50%, and 20% respectively of cloud company revenue. As spend decreases, cloud companies get closer and closer to free cash flow (FCF) positivity, reaching an average of -35% FCF margins by $100MM+.

Lesson 3: Know Your Worth.

Over the past decade, cloud company funding rounds have priced at an average of ~30x ARR between $1-10MM of ARR, reducing to ~15x ARR beyond $10MM+.

Between 2020/2021, though, the average multiple has increased to 20x, and top private cloud companies (measured by the Cloud 100) are receiving an even higher 34x. As ARR scales, round sizes tend to increase while dilution decreases.

Lesson 4: The TL:DR – Plot Your Way to the Next Milestone.

Use our benchmarks to plot your company’s progress, and download our templates to include in your next board or fundraising deck.

Bonus Lesson 5: Run the Public Playbook.

Target $100MM+ of GAAP revenue and visibility to FCF breakeven within 1-2 years before eyeing the public markets.

Series A Funding: US$20M @ US$60M-US$80M (pre-money valuation)

Source: Crunchbase, Sep 2021

“A-Rounds used to be $3–7 million with the best companies able to skip this smaller amount and raise $10 million on a $40 million pre-money valuation (20% dilution).

These days $10 million is quaint for the best A-Rounds and many are raising $20 million at $60–80 million pre-money valuations (or greater).”