Vingean Reflection

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Much of what makes the AI problem unique is that a sufficiently advanced system will be able to do higher-quality science and engineering than its human programmers.  Many of the possible hazards and benefits of an advanced system stem from its potential to bootstrap itself to higher levels of capability, possibly leading to an intelligence explosion.

If an agent achieves superintelligence via recursive self-improvement, then the impact of the resulting system depends entirely upon the ability of the initial system to reason reliably about agents that are more intelligent than itself. What sort of reasoning methods could a system use in order to justify extremely high confidence in the behavior of a yet more intelligent system? We refer to this sort of reasoning as “Vingean reflection”, after Vernor Vinge (1993), who noted that it is not possible in general to precisely predict the behavior of agents which are more intelligent than the reasoner.

A reasoner performing Vingean reflection must necessarily reason abstractly about the more intelligent agent. This will almost certainly require some form of high-confidence logically uncertain reasoning, but in lieu of a working theory of logical uncertainty, reasoning about proofs (using formal logic) is the best available formalism for studying abstract reasoning. As such, a modern study of Vingean reflection requires a background in formal logic:


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